Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign.

A national Newspoll , conducted from 27-29 March from a sample of 1249, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll , three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead since July 2024.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all Others (up two). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 51.5-48.5.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 52% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid four points to -18. Albanese led Dutton as better PM 49-38 (47-38 previously).

This is Albanese’s best net approval in Newspoll since September 2024, Dutton’s worst since October 2023 and Albanese’s biggest better PM lead since May 2024.

The budget itself was not well received, with a net 10 points saying it would be bad for the economy (zero for the previous budget in May 2024) and a net 19 points bad for you personally (two previously). However, a net nine points said the Coalition would not have delivered a better budget (six previously).

There have been three polls released since the budget, with Labor gaining the lead in Newspoll, making a big gain for a tie in Resolve, but not gaining in Freshwater. The trend in the polls to Labor prior to the budget was clear, and Newspoll and Resolve confirmed this trend.

The gains for Labor are probably inspite of the poorly rated budget. I believe US President Donald Trump is the most important reason for Labor’s gains in the last month, owing to his tariffs and associated stock market falls.

Resolve poll: Labor makes big gain from outlier for a tie

A national 

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