THE hallmark of the fourth nuclear age is an alarming, anarchic nuclear landscape. This anarchy is intensifying because New START expired in February 2026, the nuclear non-proliferation regime is losing credibility, vertical nuclear proliferation is rising, pundits in latent nuclear weapon states are debating the costs of acquiring nuclear weapons versus restraint, new technologies are entering military systems and nuclear saber-rattling continues.

The United Nations’ Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, in his keynote address to the UN General Assembly meeting commemorating the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons on September 29, 2026, warned, “Nuclear arsenals are being expanded and modernized. The rattling of nuclear sabers is growing louder. Advances in technology are increasing the odds of mistake and miscalculation.” The following day, Russia formally warned NATO through a diplomatic memo that it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the Western alliance attempted to cut off Kaliningrad. The most alarming question is how quickly nuclear saber-rattling can progress from rhetoric to complete shunning of the nuclear taboo?

Russia stopped implementing New START in February 2023 because it objected to the continuing US assistance to Ukraine. The United States stopped implementing the treaty in response. On February 5, 2026, the New START officially expired, ending over five decades of legally binding bilateral limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear forces.

The nuclear non-proliferation regime (NNPR) is shaped by a vast ecosystem of........

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