DETERRENCE is a strategy aimed at preventing adversary aggression by creating a credible threat of severe consequences, making the cost of hostility unbearable.

Nuclear deterrence, in particular, has evolved into a volatile but highly effective strategy, with Pakistan using it primarily to counter India. Based on Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), Pakistan’s nuclear posture has gradually developed into full-spectrum deterrence, incorporating tactical to strategic options across the country’s defence system. It emphasizes that any aggression threatening national survival could trigger nuclear use, providing a tiered response to conflict while rejecting a “no first use” policy and maintaining ambiguity to deter both conventional and nuclear attacks.

Since its inception, Pakistan’s pursuit of peace has repeatedly faced Indian covert and overt military actions. India’s superiority in conventional forces and nuclear capabilities has created a strategic imbalance in South Asia. Pakistan has historically been a victim of India’s expansionist designs, most notably during the 1971 crisis, when India intervened illegally, dismantling the country through direct aggression. These experiences shaped Pakistan’s strategic outlook: never to trust India and never to enter conflict without nuclear deterrence. Pakistan views India as the first nuclear power in South Asia, intending to intimidate Pakistan and assert regional dominance. Consequently, Pakistan regards its nuclear weapons as essential for national survival and security.

In the post-1971 period, Pakistan’s security establishment developed policies focused on survival, leveraging nuclear deterrence to prevent future crises. The decision to pursue nuclear weapons received broad support from the public and military establishment, addressing critical vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s security and global standing. Pakistan’s nuclear capability, justified on moral and legitimate grounds of self-defence, has promoted regional stability.

While India’s nuclear posture relies on ambiguity, Pakistan clearly declared its nuclear strategy is to deter both conventional and nuclear aggression from India. Its doctrine remains primarily India-specific, not designed to match India’s arsenal, but rather to establish a stable regional balance of power—a significant strategic achievement. Nuclear deterrence enables Pakistan to safeguard national interests sustainably, especially when nuclear disarmament offers no convincing alternative. The recent India-Pakistan short war (May 7–10, 2025) demonstrated that calibrated nuclear deterrence effectively prevented full-scale conflict, underscoring the credibility and stability of Pakistan’s nuclear strategy.

The conflict also challenged Indian assumptions regarding Pakistan’s military capabilities, showing that the country possesses well-trained, adequately equipped and numerically sufficient forces. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence complements conventional defence, with a smaller but advanced air force able to deter Indian initiatives and compel swift ceasefire. While India’s nuclear capability introduces qualitative changes and potential risks in the region, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons serve as a guarantor of territorial integrity. Given that modern wars can escalate into total wars, Pakistan relies on nuclear deterrence to prevent catastrophic conflict. Its strategy, based on a countervalue-targeting approach, maintains minimum credible deterrence. Pakistan refuses to adopt a no-first-use policy, retaining the option of first-strike nuclear employment if conventional war threatens national survival, thereby ensuring strategic balance in South Asia.

—The writer is a defence and security analyst based in Islamabad.

© Pakistan Observer