When NATO leaders gathered in Brussels in 2021 and adopted the Climate Change and Security Action Plan, they made a commitment that the alliance would become “the leading organization when it comes to understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security.” Canada took on a meaningful role by leading the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence. The Strategic Concept adopted at Madrid the following year carried the climate framing forward. On paper, the alliance has positioned itself as a serious actor on what may be the most consequential security shift of the century.

The reality on the ground is different. I surveyed 62 strategies on defence and climate change, alongside the most recent national security strategies, drawn from 23 of the 32 NATO member states. The documents were the most recent and collected from publicly available sources and direct requests to permanent delegations. Some new members, including Finland and Sweden, were still developing their plans. What the strategies reveal is not so much progress as fragmentation. NATO members are nowhere near a common path on climate adaptation or mitigation in their defence sectors, and the operational consequences of that gap are not being treated with the urgency they deserve.

What the Strategies Do and Do Not Say

The 2021 Climate Change and Security Action Plan rests on four pillars: awareness, adaptation, mitigation, and outreach. The first three matter most for defence planning. NATO’s own annual Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment identifies five distinct ways climate change threatens allied security: mass migration, escalation of conflict, increased intra-state insecurity (whether from resource scarcity or from transition shocks), climate as a threat multiplier, and contribution to geopolitical competition.

The good news is that general awareness has taken hold. Twenty-three NATO states recognize escalation of conflict in their strategies, 22 cite mass migration, and 19 reference intra-state insecurity. Threat multiplication and........

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