China’s engagement with Pakistan has long been touted as an “all-weather" partnership, yet the trajectory of their relationship is nose-diving into strategic uncertainty. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once heralded as a flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is now mired in economic, political, and security-related complications. Pakistan’s fragile internal situation—marked by a deteriorating economy, political instability, and a resurgence of insurgency—has forced China to reconsider the viability of its investments in the region.

While Beijing has sought to mitigate risks by strengthening its foothold in Gwadar, its broader strategic ambitions face serious setbacks.

When CPEC was initially launched, China viewed it as a game-changer that would grant it direct access to the Arabian Sea, thereby reducing its reliance on the vulnerable Malacca Strait while also solidifying Pakistan’s economic and strategic dependence on Beijing. However, progress has been sluggish, largely due to Pakistan’s political dysfunction, deteriorating internal security, and financial mismanagement.

The strain in relations was evident as far back as 2022 when China effectively froze any new funding, citing Pakistan’s failure to honour its financial and security commitments. With outstanding debt exceeding $110 billion and mounting obligations to Chinese firms—$16 billion in the energy sector alone—Pakistan’s capacity to sustain CPEC had significantly eroded.

Moreover, the deteriorating security landscape has further dampened Chinese enthusiasm. Balochistan, a crucial component of the CPEC route, has been the epicentre of anti-state insurgency. Frequent attacks on Chinese workers and interests, including high-profile suicide bombings, have highlighted Pakistan’s inability to provide adequate protection to its Chinese counterparts.

This failure is particularly striking given that Pakistan, at Beijing’s behest, established a dedicated Special Security Division with 15,000 troops in 2016 to safeguard CPEC. This unit was later upgraded to a........

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