West Asia at a Strategic Crossroads: Will the Borders of the Twentieth Century Survive?

Iran's strategic position rests on more than its religious identity, writes Lt Gen DP Pandey.

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An Energy Based Order Under StressDP

The twentieth century borders of the West Asia are under stress. The 18 countries in West Asia, except for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Cyprus, are joined in an external conflict or internal turmoil, their also stressed economically with their steady supply of basic trade, energy, under attack and many are fractured from within due to irreconcilable divisions of centuries. Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, State of Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Türkiye, United Arab Emirates and Yemen are all involved in conflict within and with outside forces.

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The political order of West Asia and security situation is facing a test that extends beyond the wars currently being fought. The region’s modern states emerged through a combination of imperial withdrawal, negotiated settlements, local political struggles and the consolidation of monarchies and republics. Their stability subsequently rested on a combination of national identity, religious legitimacy, energy wealth, external security guarantees that were outsourced to either West or the Soviet Union/Russian or the big corporate giants extracting oil and gas, and the balance of power between competing regional actors.

Today, several of these foundations are under pressure simultaneously. Conflict has exposed the vulnerability of energy infrastructure, the limitations of military deterrence, the reach of non-state armed groups and the difficulty of converting battlefield success into a durable political settlement. The question is no longer simply who will prevail in the present conflicts but it is whether the regional order that has endured for decades can adapt to the changing distribution of power.

Over the next five to ten years, the most significant change may not initially be the redrawing of international borders, but the redistribution of effective sovereignty, political influence and security dependence. But if not managed soon enough, the possibility of redrawing of maps, after a century and half, is quite likely along with the chaos and killings that have been associated with region before.

The Historical Burden of Borders and Identity

The collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent territorial settlements helped establish the modern political map of much of the Arab world and yet these boundaries did not eliminate older ethnic, tribal, linguistic and religious identities. While those who made these lines on the map and could distinguish between cultures and language separations into political entities in Europe were unable to do so for intermixed tribal entities in West Asia. Kurdish communities remained divided among Türkiye, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Pashtun communities straddled Afghanistan and Pakistan, while Baloch populations extended across Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Azeris became citizens of independent Azerbaijan or remained within Iran. And each one of them were persecuted.

1.The 18 countries in West Asia, except for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Cyprus, are joined in an external conflict or internal turmoil.

The 18 countries in West Asia, except for Armenia,........

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