Opinion | Why A Former Finance Secretary’s ‘GDP Manipulation’ Narrative Doesn’t Add Up

Subhash Chandra Garg said India’s 7.8% GDP growth was inflated by marking down last year’s base, but a statistical audit of the official data shows that claim does not hold up.

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A statistical audit of Subhash Chandra Garg’s critique of India’s Q1 2026-27 GDP numbers

When the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation announced 7.8% real GDP growth for Q1 2026-27 on 31 August, the celebration was punctured by sharp criticism from Subhash Chandra Garg — former Finance and Economic Affairs Secretary — who argued that the number was largely manufactured by quietly marking down last year’s base.

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It’s a serious charge from a serious person, and it deserved a serious response. So I pulled out the actual quarter-by-quarter GDP series directly from MoSPI’s e-Sankhyiki portal — the same primary database from which PIB releases are made and Garg’s own figures are drawn. And I ran the numbers across all four quarters of FY 2025-26 to understand whether his charge is right or wrong.

The verdict: Garg’s central claim — that the........

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