Next Tuesday is Election Day, and in all three marquee races, the Democratic candidate appears to be at least fairly well positioned. Zohran Mamdani (at 45 percent) is way ahead in New York City, although if Curtis Sliwa were to drop out and encourage his voters (15 percent) to switch to Andrew Cuomo (28 percent), it might get somewhat close. In Virginia, the 10 most recent polls average out to giving Abigail Spanberger an eight-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears. New Jersey is closer, but even there, Mikie Sherrill leads Jack Ciattarelli by around five points.

Let’s assume for the sake of argument that all three win. That would be a great night for Democrats and a very bad night for Donald Trump. He has endorsed Ciattarelli and quasi-endorsed Earle-Sears, so both of those races will to some extent offer a verdict on his ability to influence outcomes (of course, these are both blue states). In New York City, he’s made his heaping contempt for Mamdani widely known. Three victories would continue the roll Democrats have been on this year—in more than two dozen contests, the Democratic candidates have outperformed Kamala Harris’s numbers from last year.

If all three win, Mamdani will clearly be the biggest story. His win would be historic, one of the biggest upsets in New York political history. Billionaires, led by Mike Bloomberg, have spent $20 million or more trying to stop him. His campaign hasn’t been flawless, but he’s mostly stayed on message and remained upbeat—that’s harder to do than it looks in the closing days of a campaign when people are trying to destroy you. Wins by Spanberger and Sherrill would be........

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