The causes and risks of the idea of establishing ‘Southern Turkestan’ in Afghanistan

Under the conditions of power monopoly in Afghanistan, the proposal of ideas such as ‘Southern Turkestan’ can become a platform for foreign intervention, ethnic polarization, and further disintegration of national cohesion. This project could also serve as a tool for future pressure on Iran, Russia, and China.

In Pan-Turkist literature, ‘Southern Turkestan’ refers to the territories located south of the Amu Darya River, corresponding to parts of present-day northern Afghanistan, including the provinces of Jowzjan, Faryab, Sarpul, and Balkh, as well as portions of Samangan and Kunduz. From this perspective, these regions maintain cultural and linguistic linkages with Turkic-speaking countries.

In recent months, Naqibullah Faiq – the former governor of Faryab – initially wrote: ‘If global developments continue at this pace, Afghanistan might disintegrate, and a new state called “Southern Turkestan” could be established in its northern regions.

The causes and roots of the ‘Southern Turkestan’ discourse

The increased attention given to the ‘Southern Turkestan’ idea is best understood within a framework of domestic and external causes, historical transformations, geopolitical rivalries, the legitimacy crisis of the central state, the challenge of ethno-political power-sharing, and the concomitant soft Pan-Turkic mobilizations.

Afghanistan has historically grappled with the nation-state problematic. The Taliban’s policies constitute one of the key factors reinforcing centrifugal discourses. With the intensification of structural injustices and the weakening of national governance, the ground has increasingly been set for the renewed salience of ethnic cleavages and the reproduction of identity discourses in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s return to power and the establishment of a centralized, predominantly Pashtun-centric political structure have reinforced the perception of political marginalization among Afghanistan’s ethnic communities.

At the regional and international levels,........

© New Eastern Outlook