The Trump administration’s policy on Iran in 2025 demonstrates a balance between increased pressure and the possibility of negotiations, significantly impacting the geopolitical situation in the region.

The “Maximum pressure”

Having secured a ‘cease fire’ in Gaza and announced his plans to overtake the land as a “real estate” development venture, President Trump’s NSPM sounds only a logical step towards strengthening Israel. The Israeli war on Gaza also tested Iran in significant ways. Besides both of them attacking each other directly, the Israeli assault on Hezbollah also pushed Iranian regional capability to its limits. In this context, the recently signed “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” between Tehran and Moscow comes as a key strategic development.

Although it is not a mutual defence pact, the treaty still covers areas from trade and active military cooperation to science, culture and education. This is besides the coming into force of the free trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union and the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2025. As far as Iran’s ties with China are concerned, they were sealed via the 25-year co-operation agreement in 2021 when Biden was the US president. Trump’s maximum pressure, unlike when it was previously applied between 2016 and 2020, therefore interacts with the maximum support that Iran is now receiving from the two biggest US competitors. Trump, therefore, is open to making a new deal.

The Deal

Soon after........

© New Eastern Outlook