Saudi Arabia and the UAE Are No Longer Building the Same Middle East

The Mecca defence pact reveals a strategic divergence that could reshape the Gulf. Riyadh is building security partnerships beyond the Arab world, while Abu Dhabi is pursuing a different model of regional power.

The Ally Left Outside

The agreement is significant in its own right. It also shows how regional states are moving away from militarily depending on the US. But the alliance’s composition is arguably more revealing than its provisions. Saudi Arabia has chosen to deepen its security relationship with two major Muslim powers outside the Gulf while leaving all other Gulf Arab states—including the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain—outside the new arrangement.

The absence of the UAE is particularly striking. For much of the past decade, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were widely regarded as the two principal pillars of the emerging Gulf order. Their governments coordinated closely on regional security, worked together in Yemen for some time, and shared an increasingly assertive approach to regional politics (e.g. they boycotted Qatar together). Yet the two countries have since developed increasingly divergent interests. As reports highlight, their relationship has evolved from close partnership towards rivalry, with disagreements extending from oil policy to geopolitical influence. The divergence became especially visible in Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed different local actors and developed increasingly incompatible visions for the country’s political future. The confrontation over Yemen in late 2025 and early 2026 represented the most serious rupture between the two countries in decades.

The disagreements have not been confined to Yemen. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have also pursued increasingly independent approaches to oil policy, Iran, and regional influence. The........

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