If the core purpose of Washington’s sanctions on Iran was to force a regime change in Tehran and cripple its ability to affect geopolitics in the Middle East, none of this has happened. In fact, recent events show Iran behaving as a country that sounds neither deterred by Israel nor under immense pressure, both economic and military, from Washington. In response to Israel’s killing of Ismael Haniyeh in Iran, Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri said that Iran will “make the aggressor Israeli regime pay the price for its aggression in a legitimate and decisive action”. This is opposite to what Western political pundits have recently been saying with regard to Iran, i.e., if Tehran wanted to retaliate, it would already have. But this is not true. There is a lot more to what is happening in the region than meets the eye. Let’s turn to that.

The Big Picture

Let’s consider the bigger picture. Immediately after the Israeli strike that killed the Hamas leader, a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks began in Doha, with senior US officials, including the Secretary of the State, expressing hope of ultimate success. If Iran has not attacked Israel directly, its only explanation is Tehran’s desire to not expand the war. (Let’s not forget that Iran has previously attacked Israel directly.)

Until recently, it is Israel – or the Netanyahu administration, specifically – that has derailed every ceasefire talk. If Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire formula, this could be a political nightmare for him. Not only would a ceasefire open up the question of internal investigations in Israel to fix the responsibility for failing to anticipate –........

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