Can the US rebuild ties with the Middle East?

The deal America signed to end the war with Iran may do more to entrench Chinese power in the Middle East than any agreement Beijing could have negotiated for itself.

The Limits of American Power

The war that the United States and Israel prosecuted against Iran beginning in late February 2026 was, whatever else it achieved, a brutal audit of American credibility in the Gulf. For decades, the region’s security architecture rested on a foundational bargain: oil for protection. The Gulf states hosted American military infrastructure — including the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain — and deferred to Washington’s strategic preferences. In exchange, they expected a guarantee against existential threats. The Iran war exposed the limits of that guarantee in ways that no diplomatic visit can undo.

Iran retaliated against its adversaries not by striking at American assets alone, but by directing roughly 83 percent of its total missile and drone strikes at GCC countries, with the UAE absorbing the heaviest bombardment of any country in the conflict, including Israel. Oil facilities were struck. Bahrain’s aluminum and energy exports — which account for over two-thirds of its government revenue — were disrupted. The perception of Gulf Arab states as safe havens, assiduously cultivated over years of economic diversification, was shattered.

All of this unfolded while American troops and hardware were present in the region. The lesson Gulf capitals drew was not that they needed to distance themselves from Washington, but something more unsettling: that proximity to American power does not equal immunity from Iranian retaliation. That is a structural limitation that no amount of weapons sales or joint military exercises can resolve. The US could not provide an........

© New Eastern Outlook