The rush of Western leaders to Beijing is less about ideology than survival, marking a strategic reset in a fragmented, increasingly multipolar global order.

What is a “middle power” in geopolitical terms?

In geopolitical theory, a middle power is a state that lacks the comprehensive dominance of a superpower but possesses sufficient economic, diplomatic, technological, or regional weight to influence international outcomes. Middle powers are not system-makers, but they are system-shapers. They rely on coalitions, institutions, and diplomacy rather than unilateral force. Countries such as Canada, Australia, the UK, France, Germany, and the Nordic states fall into this category, though their relative power has declined because of the rising states like India, Indonesia, or Brazil.

Crucially, “middle power” is not a collective identity. What unites them today is vulnerability: they are deeply embedded in global trade and security networks that are now being weaponized by great powers.

The Western middle powers parading in Beijing

Mark Carney’s blunt formulation—“either you are on the menu or on the table”—captures the dilemma facing middle powers. In an era where tariffs, sanctions, supply chains, and financial systems are instruments of coercion, dependence becomes a strategic liability. The Trump administration’s threats toward allies, such as tariffs on Canada and others, Greenland territorial grabbing, and transactional NATO politics,........

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