The Saharo-Sahelian zone (SSZ) is the region most exposed to climate change. These processes have a direct impact on regional stability. Soil degradation, droughts, desertification and water scarcity, above all, undermine the region’s food security.

The struggle for natural resources is intensifying

The climatic factor exacerbates the struggle for natural resources and in most cases this confrontation is subject to ideologization and radicalization by jihadist groups. The Sahel has never been noted as a region where religious extremism is extremely strong, but it is jihadist terrorist organizations, especially the Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS)* that are taking advantage of the scarcity of natural resources to recruit among the most vulnerable populations, especially pastoralists and farmers, whose tensions have increased significantly. For example, between June and November 2024, more than 1,600 conflicts between agrarians and herders were recorded in the region over disputes access to pastures, arable land, and drinking water. Thus, climate change aggravates the situation, first of all, of those employed in the agricultural sector.

Droughts and soil erosion exert considerable pressure on agriculture in the Sahel region. This is partly due to the long dry seasons that last from November to April-May. During this period, daytime heat peaks in the northern Sahel reach 45°C.  According to a number of projections, the average temperature in the region will increase by 2-4.3°C by 2080. The number of extreme hot days with temperatures over 35°C is also expected to increase to 125. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, about 50% of crops are lost under such climatic conditions.

One of the most recent severe droughts in the region was in 2021, when Mali’s agricultural sector lost 90,000 hectares of crops. This led to a 10.5% drop in cereal production across the country, affecting the food security of more than 3 million........

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