Europe Forgot Geography: How NATO Turned Russia from a Neighbour into a Permanent Enemy

Europe’s greatest strategic failure was not that it misread Russia. It was that it forgot geography.

For more than 30 years, European leaders accepted and propagated the opposite principle. They considered Russia a permanent threat and the United States a natural ally. Europe did not gain sovereignty by doing so. It became smaller, more dependent, more militarized and less able to define its own historic interests.

NATO calls this security. Its public narrative is well known: NATO is defensive, enlargement is voluntary and Europe needs American might to keep itself safe. But this language obscures NATO’s deeper political purpose. NATO is not just a military alliance. It is the institutional means by which Washington remains Europe’s indispensable power. The more Europe fears Russia, the more Europe depends on the United States. The more Europe depends on the United States, the less room it has to pursue an independent relationship with Russia.

The tragedy is Europe could have chosen another path. After the Cold War ended, Europe had the opportunity to create a continental order which made Russia a strategic partner. Energy interdependence, industrial cooperation, scientific cooperation, cultural familiarity and security dialogue could have built the foundation stones for truly European architecture. Instead, Europe returned to bloc politics. NATO expanded into Eastern Europe, absorbed former Warsaw Pact members and moved inexorably toward Russia’s borders. In March 2024, NATO welcomed Sweden as its 32nd member nation. (NATO)

NATO expansion creates new flashpoints of confrontation

The real strategic message was sent in 2008. NATO’s Bucharest Summit declared Ukraine and Georgia “will become members of NATO.” This was not benign bureaucratic wording. It promised to incorporate two border states with enormous security sensitivities inside a long-term geopolitical competition. NATO framed it as open-door policy. Russia saw a US-led military alliance being placed on its borders. One need not agree with everything Russia has done over the last 15 years to recognize great powers respond when hostile military blocs push up against their strategic space.........

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