Jun 08, 2026 12:43 pm IST

Opinion | Rs 1 Lakh Crore Gone, And Counting: Worse May Be Coming For India's Oil Shock

Cuts in central excise on petrol and diesel cost the Centre roughly $1.18 billion a month in revenue. And the Indian Rupee is now Asia's worst-performing currency.

Aditya Sinha Aditya Sinha Analyst

The Al Hamra, a liquefied natural gas tanker operated by ADNOC Logistics, slipped out of the Strait of Hormuz late last month, bound for western India. The vessel had switched off its tracking signal on April 19, idling near the eastern entrance of the strait, and was loaded quietly at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's Das Island export terminal during the silence. Its reappearance on Kpler's ship-tracking data was the first confirmed LNG shipment to India through Hormuz since the Iran war began three months ago. India received over half its LNG from Qatar and the UAE before the war. Those flows had essentially halted. And one tanker does not undo three months of disruption.

The economic toll of the disruption has accumulated, meanwhile, in places that do not appear on news tickers. The Finance Minister, speaking at a SIDBI event in Mumbai on May 25, said the Centre is set to absorb over Rs 1 lakh crore in revenue forgone from the cut in central excise on petrol and diesel. The figure, however large, is only part of the bill.

Brent crude futures traded near $98 a barrel on May 26, having touched $114 earlier in the month and peaked at........

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