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Randall Denley: Ontario's fiscal mess isn't just bad — it's getting worse

Deficit projections are overly optimistic and so are future spending estimates, according to Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office

A series of new reports leads to only one logical conclusion: Ontario’s government finances are in a mess and getting worse.

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The provincial government’s current deficit projections are almost certainly optimistic and so are its numbers for future spending in key ministries, according to analyses by Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO).

Randall Denley: Ontario's fiscal mess isn't just bad — it's getting worse Back to video

On the deficit, even the Ford government’s own numbers aren’t good. Ontario’s most recent budget projects a deficit of $13.8 billion in 2026-27, $6.1 billion the year after, then a slight surplus in 2028–29.

It’s difficult to give those numbers much credibility. Finance Minister Years ago, Peter Bethlenfalvy said there would be a surplus in 2024–25, but he has now pushed that target back three times.

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