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John Ivison: Carney’s oil patch wishes might really come true

The Prime Minister's grand bargain is just intentions for now. But it's harder for Alberta’s separatists to say he's trying to hobble their industry.

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It may not be apparent for another 15 years, but the events of the past week have the potential to initiate what Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has called a new “super-cycle of production growth” in the oil patch.

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Things don’t just happen, they are made to happen.

John Ivison: Carney’s oil patch wishes might really come true Back to video

In 2000, crude production from the oilsands was around 610,000 barrels a day. Successive provincial governments adopted a low-royalty/ high-volume extraction model that attracted investment to major projects that were quickly approved and constructed. The result was that the oilsands saw a cumulative average annual growth rate of nine per cent over the subsequent 18 years. (Production averaged around 3.5-million barrels a day in 2025).

The last few days have seen a steady stream of government and private sector announcements that give the impression of fresh momentum, although they currently remain little more than good intentions.

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The most consequential of those is clearly the announcement by the federal and Alberta governments of a new oil pipeline to the West Coast.

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