Gulf states have answered Iranian pressure in two very different ways. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates bought protection: air defence systems, advanced fighter jets, protected air bases. Oman bought access instead. It refused to join the Saudi-led war in Yemen, refused to join the 2017 blockade of Qatar, and kept an open line to Tehran throughout. Commentators sum this up with one label: Oman as the Switzerland of the Gulf.

The label is wrong in one important way. Switzerland was never bombed by a country it was mediating with. Oman has been. Even so, Oman has come out of the worst year in modern Gulf history with stronger public finances, an intact diplomatic role, and a legal position that means the Strait of Hormuz cannot be settled without its agreement. This is design, not luck. It rests on three supports, and all three are under more pressure now than at any time since 1970.

The numbers set out the first support. The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Oman to 3.7 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent in 2025. It expects a budget surplus of 4.5 per cent of GDP, and it put government debt at 34.7 per cent at the end of 2025. The reason matters more than the figures. Omani oil and gas facilities came through the war largely undamaged, so Muscat could raise production and exports at the very moment supply elsewhere collapsed.

The Emirates show the contrast. The chief executive of ADNOC has estimated that the closure has cost more than one billion barrels, with roughly 100 million more lost every week, and that flows will not be normal until 2027.

The Emirates show the contrast. The chief executive of ADNOC has estimated that the closure has cost more than one billion barrels, with roughly 100 million more lost every week, and that flows will not be normal until 2027.

Abu Dhabi has answered with construction rather than diplomacy. The West-East pipeline to Fujairah is about half built, and it is meant to push total Emirati bypass capacity past 5.5 million barrels a day.

Oman’s ports sit somewhere different. Duqm, roughly 500 kilometres beyond the strait, has drawn about $30 billion in committed investment, and Iraq has revived plans for a Basra-Duqm pipeline able to carry 2.5 million barrels a day.

Oman’s ports sit somewhere different. Duqm, roughly 500 kilometres beyond........

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