President Trump has promised that the United States will not attack Iran before the 3rd  November midterm elections. That statement sounds like restraint and at the same time also be read as a warning. By tying military restraint to election day, Trump has made the period after the vote more dangerous.

The Iran war is making the election harder for the Republican Party. As of now, prediction markets give Republicans roughly a one-in-ten chance of retaining both chambers of Congress.

An October AP-NORC poll found that 69 per cent of Americans believed the war was not worth fighting, while only 28 per cent approved of Trump’s handling of Iran. For many voters, the war is no longer a distant foreign-policy issue. They feel it through higher fuel prices, inflation, and the fear of another open-ended conflict.

An October AP-NORC poll found that 69 per cent of Americans believed the war was not worth fighting, while only 28 per cent approved of Trump’s handling of Iran. For many voters, the war is no longer a distant foreign-policy issue. They feel it through higher fuel prices, inflation, and the fear of another open-ended conflict.

A Republican defeat, however, would not remove Trump’s military power the next morning. He would remain Commander-in-Chief, and the outgoing Congress would remain in office until 3rd January 2027. This leaves a two-month gap between the election and the arrival of a new Congress. During that period, Trump would face less pressure to protect Republican candidates, but Democrats would not yet control the congressional machinery needed to challenge him.

That is the main danger. Americans may vote against the party that owns the war, but their votes would not immediately change who controls military decisions. The election could reject the war politically while leaving Trump free to expand it........

© Middle East Monitor