President Donald Trump has once again assured the US “intervention” to rescue protesters in Iran. The world is watching the so-called Gen-Z protests with caution, while a large segment of global opinion, largely shaped by Western media, portrays the Islamic Republic as fragile and perhaps collapsing, much like Venezuela. US fighter jets stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar are often cited as ready to act on Washington’s command.

Given Iran’s severe economic distress and mounting social pressures, such assessments may appear persuasive. Yet, in practical terms, Iran is not Venezuela. Unlike Caracas, Tehran retains robust state institutions, a coherent military doctrine, ideological legitimacy among large sections of society, and a deeply entrenched regional deterrence architecture. Venezuela collapsed under sanctions because it lacked strategic depth, reliable allies, and an autonomous defence capability. Iran, by contrast, remains capable of mounting a credible counter-response even against combined Israel–US pressure.

It is true that whenever Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits President Trump in the Oval Office, he often returns with ambitious and aggressive plans. However, past US administrations, particularly those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, demonstrated a clearer understanding of regional realities, including Iran’s ability to absorb shocks and retaliate against US allies. During their tenures, Washington was not perceived as being driven from Tel Aviv. Neither AIPAC nor any single foreign leader exercised decisive control over US policy, nor was foreign policy shaped by the transactional instincts (MAGA) of a business-oriented president like Trump.

The current unrest in Iran does not appear aimed at outright regime collapse or a Mossadegh-style overthrow. Rather, it seems calibrated to distract Tehran and entangle resistance forces in limited internal strife, thereby giving Israeli room to capture the entire Palestine. Iran, it appears to be targeted more seriously at a later stage.

For now, the Gen-Z narrative in Iran appears overstated. Excessive enthusiasm is misplaced. The movement is likely to lose momentum,........

© Middle East Monitor