The Mecca defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan is, at first glance, a security development. Yet its longer-term significance may emerge in a sphere that extends well beyond military cooperation: energy diplomacy.

It is still too early to speak of a new energy bloc. The operational details of the agreement and the degree to which cooperation among the three countries becomes institutionalised will only become clearer over time. Nor is there any guarantee that defence cooperation will automatically translate into economic integration.

The composition of the three countries nevertheless raises an important question: could a new security framework alter the risk calculus surrounding energy investment and transportation and, over time, facilitate greater connectivity between the Gulf, Anatolia and South Asia?

This matters because energy diplomacy today is no longer defined solely by ownership of resources or volumes of oil and gas production. Infrastructure security, transportation routes, capital, markets and reliability of supply have all become components of energy power.

How security enters the energy equation

The relationship between a defence pact and energy cooperation is neither direct nor automatic. The missing link is risk.

Large energy investments require long time horizons, substantial capital and infrastructure that cannot easily be relocated. Pipelines, refineries, ports, LNG terminals, power plants, electricity cables and storage facilities are all vulnerable to wars, missile and drone attacks, sabotage, cyber operations and disruptions to maritime routes.

If Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani security cooperation eventually extends to protecting critical infrastructure, maritime security, air defence, cybersecurity and early-warning systems, it could reduce some of the political and security risks surrounding energy projects.

If Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani security cooperation eventually extends to protecting critical infrastructure, maritime security, air defence, cybersecurity and early-warning systems, it could reduce some of the political and security risks surrounding energy projects.

A lower risk environment may, in turn, affect insurance and financing costs, improve the attractiveness of long-term investment and facilitate more durable agreements on energy supply, storage and transportation.The potential........

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