For decades, oil and natural gas defined power in the Middle East. Control over hydrocarbon resources shaped alliances, triggered conflicts and influenced the global economy. Today, however, a quieter but equally significant competition is emerging beneath the surface. The next strategic battle in West Asia may not be fought over oil fields or gas pipelines, but over the critical minerals required to power the global energy transition.

As governments around the world accelerate efforts to reduce carbon emissions, demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, batteries and advanced digital technologies is increasing rapidly. These industries rely heavily on critical minerals such as lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements. Without them, the green transition cannot occur. As a result, access to critical mineral supply chains is becoming a matter of national security.

From Oil Geopolitics to Mineral Geopolitics

The global energy system is undergoing a historic transformation.

While fossil fuels will remain important for decades, future economic competitiveness will increasingly depend on the ability to secure reliable supplies of critical minerals.

While fossil fuels will remain important for decades, future economic competitiveness will increasingly depend on the ability to secure reliable supplies of critical minerals.

This shift is changing the geography of strategic competition. Countries that once focused primarily on oil reserves are now investing heavily in mining, mineral processing and battery manufacturing. China has already established a dominant position in many segments of these supply chains. The United States and Europe are attempting to reduce their dependence on Chinese processing capabilities, while India,........

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