As economic Pangaea fractures, global risks multiply
Two hundred million years ago, the supercontinent Pangaea began to crack. The process was slow, almost invisible at first, but once it started, it could not be reversed. Today, something similar is unfolding – not to landmasses, but to the global order that shaped the world for the past three decades.
Mark Carney, Canada’s former central banker and now prime minister, put it bluntly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, warning that the world is living through “a rupture, not a transition”. The assumptions that underpinned global trade and stability, he said, no longer hold.
The warning is timely. The integrated system that emerged after the Cold War – built on open trade, interlinked economies and shared rules – is breaking apart. For roughly 30 years after 1991, the world moved towards what might be called an economic Pangaea.
Goods were produced wherever it was cheapest and most efficient. China became the factory floor. India emerged as the software backbone. Southeast Asia carved out manufacturing niches. Borders still existed on maps, but for business they mattered less and less.
This system delivered obvious gains. Products became cheaper. Growth accelerated.........
