Like many Canadians, I experienced this year’s World Series as a series of tense, emotional highs and lows. Every hit or run sparked a thrill or a jolt of dread. Each game was more anxiety-provoking than the last. But unlike most Canadians, I had more than a fan’s stake in the outcome. I’m a professor of statistics, and I had accidentally stuck my neck out farther than I intended. My interest in the winning team was not only personal, but professional.

It all started innocently enough. As a statistician and frequent media commentator, I had a brief TV interview after the Jays made it to the World Series. I knew what they would ask me: what are the odds the Jays would win? To answer the question, I developed a simple statistical model. I extrapolated from the Jays’ and Dodgers’ regular-season performances, in which the Jays had the slightest advantage (a win-loss record of 94-68, versus the Dodgers’ 93-⁠69). I also looked at home field advantage, which worked in the Jays’ favour, as they would have one more home game than the Dodgers. I didn’t delve into more complicated variables, like individual player performances or injury status. My statistical model ended up giving the Blue Jays a slight edge, with a 52.46 per cent chance of success. I explained my findings, and was ready to move on.

Only later did I realize that everyone else considered the........

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