France and Argentina Have the Best Odds to Meet in the World Cup 2026 Final, Bookmakers Currently Say
With the World Cup's quarterfinal picture now largely set, bookmakers and prediction models have identified France and Argentina as the two teams most likely to reach this year's final, a projection based on both nations' strong outright title odds and their positioning on opposite sides of the tournament bracket.
According to odds published via FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 6, France remains the outright favorite to win the tournament at 175, meaning a $10 bet would return $27.50 total. Spain sits second at 330, followed by Argentina at 450 and England at 500. Norway, Colombia, Belgium, Morocco, Switzerland and Egypt round out the field with considerably longer odds, ranging from 1800 for Norway up to 25000 for Egypt.
The reason France and Argentina stand out as the most likely finalists comes down to bracket structure rather than head-to-head odds alone. The tournament's knockout bracket is split into two separate halves, with the winners of each half advancing to face one another in the final. France sits in the top half of the bracket alongside Spain, meaning the two European heavyweights, currently the tournament's first and second favorites, are on a collision course to meet each other in the semifinal round rather than the final itself. That dynamic effectively makes France the strongest single team positioned to emerge from that half of the bracket, given its status as the tournament's overall favorite heading into its quarterfinal matchup with Morocco.
Argentina, by contrast, sits in the bottom half of the bracket alongside England, Norway, Egypt, Switzerland........
