Among the many interested readers of the new Strategic Defence Review – the public, the military, defence suppliers, and allies – one of the most important is Vladimir Putin.

For too long, the UK and the West underappreciated how closely the Kremlin watches what our policies, actions and military posture say about our willingness – or otherwise – to confront Russian aggression.

As far back as 2008, when Putin invaded Georgia, Russia’s reading of our appetite for deterrence has been that we are a paper tiger. Far more dangerous is the fact that we repeatedly proved that interpretation to be correct.

When Mitt Romney challenged for the US presidency, Barack Obama mocked him live on television for identifying Russia as a geopolitical threat, declaring that “the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back”.

Unfortunately for everyone, Romney was right, and Russians watch American TV like anybody else. Within 18 months, Putin’s army of “little green men” had crossed into Ukraine to occupy Crimea and swathes of the Donbas.

The Kremlin’s conclusion was that they could push the boundaries – invade and occupy, blast civilian airliners out of the sky, murder people in........

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