No two ways about it and no point pretending otherwise: Reform has had a good election. By mid-afternoon on Friday, the party had won nearly 900 seats. Predictions ahead of the local elections suggested they were on course for around 1,900 gains when all the results were in, and that currently seems about right.

Last year’s local elections saw them challenge the Tories by capturing traditional Tory shires. This year saw them take a shot at traditional urban Labour seats. In both cases, these are Leave-voting areas, with older, socially conservative voters who are primed for Reform support. The party demonstrated that it was able to take these seats as well.

The national equivalent vote projection (NEV), released moments ago by Sky News, paints a stark picture.

If this were a general election, Reform would win 284 seats, just 42 short of a majority. The Tories would win 96, meaning that a Tory-Reform coalition could form a government and I suspect probably would. The progressive parties would all be trailing, with Labour on 110, the Lib Dems on 80, the SNP on 36 and Plaid Cymru and the Greens on 13 each.

It seems as if a populist flood has submerged everything we once knew about British politics, as if this great and terrible wave is approaching and there’s nothing we can do........

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