The old Leninist saying that there are “decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen” has been rolled out a lot since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the present cascade of events really is extraordinary in its epoch-shaping potential. 

Expect surprises. The weeks in front of us are likely to see an acceleration of this giddy pace, which began at the Munich Security Conference with a bracing pulpit message to Europe and Ukraine from the new US administration that the old rules of US engagement and support were on the way out.

It’s telling how long ago it feels since US Vice President JD Vance roundly upbraided Europe for being a slouch at paying for its defence (and for generally being too European to boot). The meetings of Russian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia have signalled that the pace Donald Trump wants to set is breakneck.

For Keir Starmer, heading to Washington to meet an assertive and maverick president in dynamic mode, that means walking a line between being firm, alongside the most serious military players in Europe (France, Germany and the combined resolve of the Nordic states) in their support for an independent Ukraine, while also showing openness to a deal to end the war at a speed which is more useful to those who started it than Ukrainians

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