Trump’s Iran trap: No victory, no deal, no withdrawal
US President Donald Trump is trapped in a strategic deadlock with Iran with no clear options. The US can neither win the war nor withdraw at this stage. Negotiations remain the most viable option, but their success is doubtful given weaknesses in Trump’s style of deal-making. Trump’s delusional notion that bombing and negotiations can run in parallel is inherently flawed and futile.
Trump’s negotiating strategy suffers from inconsistency, inexperience and ineptitude. In his negotiating team, there are two sets of actors: Three states and two individuals: Oman, Qatar and Pakistan; and Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Both sets of actors were chosen for their loyalty to Trump rather than for real experience in strategic affairs.
A negotiation requires trust-building and neutrality. Negotiators should appear neutral with the confidence of both parties. However, in the case of the ongoing negotiations, they are running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. Oman and Qatar are regional allies of the US, while Pakistan is trying to become one with its military chief, Asim Munir. None of them is viewed as a neutral actor. These actors carry little political weight, and their........
