Written by Bernard Haykel

Israel and Hamas have finally reached a staged ceasefire agreement, and according to news reports, this occurred only because of the enormous pressure exerted on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the incoming President of the United States, Donald Trump. There are, of course, echoes of the 1981 release of American diplomatic hostages by Iran when President Ronald Reagan took office, highlighting in each case, the perceived weakness of a Democratic president and administration. President Joe Biden, it appears, was neither able nor willing to exert significant pressure on Israel to halt the war. At the same time, Hamas was incentivised to agree to a ceasefire only after Israel’s defeat of its allies within Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance — namely Hezbollah — and the growing influence of less radical states such as Turkey and Qatar.

The agreement outlines a phased process, beginning with the release of 33 of the 100 hostages over the first six weeks. In the subsequent phase, the remaining hostages will be released, and in the final stage, the bodies of the deceased will be returned. In exchange, Israel has agreed to release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, return the remains of Hamas fighters, and withdraw militarily from Gaza. Additionally, Israel will facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and support its reconstruction efforts.

However, the agreement is fraught with potential pitfalls and could collapse at any stage. Hamas may claim a pyrrhic victory simply by surviving, thereby undermining Netanyahu’s stated goal of eradicating the movement and........

© Indian Express