Political junkies and the media are obsessed with opinion polls on the relative standings of the political parties.

Movements within standard statistical margins of error are treated with great respect.

In between elections, it’s probably all irrelevant, but a significant turning point may have been reached in the forthcoming Australian election, which until very recently looked like the election Peter Dutton couldn’t lose – or at least come very close to a majority within a couple of seats.

Back in February, the first YouGov MRP 2025 election model showed the Coalition winning 73 seats, which would make Albanese’s Labor government the first one-term federal government in 94 years.

But now there has been a subtle – if not yet seismic – shift.

A Freshwater poll for the AFR conducted from March 13-15 with a 1051 sample size gave the Coalition a 51-49 lead – a one point gain since February – Labor steady on 31 per cent and the Greens and others up one point.

Insignificant, obviously in many ways, but the Coalition was down.

Albanese’s net approval was up one point (again not really statistically significant) but Dutton slipped down four points. This was Albanese’s best result since September 2024.

Over the past two months, Albanese is up eight points and Dutton down eight. Momentum, as some West Wing character would trumpet.

Analysis in The New Daily suggests there has been improvement for Labor across a range of polls – and........

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