There is a marked immaturity in the reporting of opinion polls and other political developments in Australia at the moment. I see problems in two main categories.

First is the seemingly endless pursuit of uniquely Australian explanations for what are obviously global trends.

The second is the tendency to ignore the historical reality that polls three months out from an election can be important signposts, but do not justify attempts to forecast likely election outcomes with any specificity.

With regard to the first category, writers of both the right and left have tended to impose their own policy preferences as explanations for the decline in support for the ALP at the federal level.

Sky News and other Murdoch outlets have suggested the change is part of a global move to the right in the electorate. This is not totally without foundation, inflation and unplanned immigration tend to play into the political interests of right-wing parties.

However, it ignores the large change in the United Kingdom towards the centre-left and in France to the NFP, the French left-wing alliance at the expense........

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