Costco Made a Big Bet That Trump Would Lose at the Supreme Court. Here’s How It Could Pay Off Now

If tariff refunds materialize, Costco’s decision could look like sharp strategic timing.

EXPERT OPINION BY BILL MURPHY JR., FOUNDER OF UNDERSTANDABLY AND CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC. @BILLMURPHYJR

Photo: Kevin Carter/Getty Images

Back in December, I wrote about how Costco became the first major retailer — and the largest company — to sue the Trump administration over tariffs. At the time, the question practically asked itself: Brilliant or insane? 

Two months later, there is a much clearer answer — or at least, a strong early signal. 

On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that most of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, a sweeping decision that could ultimately trigger tens of billions of dollars in refunds to importers. 

If the refunds materialize as many companies hope, Costco’s decision to jump into court early could look less like a gamble and more like sharp strategic timing. 

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Costco wasn’t alone, but it stood out. 

To be clear, Costco was never the only company to sue. Other major firms that filed similar tariff challenges include EssilorLuxottica, Kawasaki Motors, Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods, Goodyear, Alcoa, and Toyota-related entities. 

However, Costco was different because it is, at heart, a consumer-facing retailer with one of the most visible brands in America. 

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