Anyone who watched Argentina’s football World Cup matches (before the final with Spain) will understand India’s monsoon this year. For long stretches, Argentina’s goals would not come. Then came a rush of late goals that changed the scoreline. The monsoon has followed a similar pattern.

June ended with rainfall about 40% below normal, making it India’s fifth-driest June since record-keeping began in 1901. Rain returned in heavy bursts in early July, with places like Mahabaleshwar and Lonavala recording close to 1,000 mm in just 48 hours. In an extraordinary event on July 23, Umergam in Gujarat’s Valsad district received 1,064 mm of rain in 24 hours, the third-highest daily rainfall ever recorded in India. The national deficit narrowed to 15% by July 26.

This is a monsoon of contrasts.

Several weeks of weak rain can be followed by a few days of intense downpours. Areas waiting for rain can suddenly face floods and crop damage, while other regions remain dry. Heavy rain can change the national rainfall average, but cannot quickly restore soil moisture or groundwater storage lost during weeks of weak rain.

The impact is visible in agriculture. By July 17, kharif sowing had covered about 658 lakh hectares, around 42 lakh hectares, or 6%, less than at the same time last year. Pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, and cotton were about 15%, 11%, 6%, and 6% behind last........

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