“They said, something unusual is happening. There are eight boats that are going right up the middle of the Hormuz strait … I think they were Pakistani flagged … I guess we’re dealing with the right people [in Iran]”, US president Donald Trump disclosed in a recent cabinet meeting. In total, 10 Pakistani flagged oil tankers recently crossed the Strait of Hormuz. They were allegedly a “present” from Iran to Trump and signalled intent to pursue negotiations with Islamabad as a “go-between” if not a formal mediator. Just as Pakistan’s role in this war came into sharper focus, its Eid ceasefire with Afghanistan ended and border clashes resumed. This ceasefire had come into effect after Pakistan bombed a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul that claimed nearly 400 lives.

As India debates the optical and substantive value of its handling of this war till now, the geopolitical plates of its “near west” are undergoing a tectonic shift. The first shift is occurring inside Iran as the war enters the next, deadlier phase of a potential ground incursion by American and Israeli forces. The second is in Kabul, where the Afghan Taliban is undergoing a fitful transformation from being an insurgent group that won a State as a war spoil into a Statist administration.

The final shift is happening in Islamabad, where the military has regained some of its lost popularity and is experiencing a reawakening of its geopolitical purpose. This is despite Pakistan’s persistent economic troubles, a brewing energy crisis, and former prime minister Imran Khan being incarcerated.

Given how consequential they are for India’s interests, these shifts deserve analytical attention beyond the wider dynamics of a disrupted world order,........

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