While the India-Pakistan ceasefire, agreed through the director general of military operations (DGMO) channels and reportedly brokered by the US, on May 10 ended the rapidly escalating military hostilities between the two sides, India-Pakistan relations may have changed in fundamental ways between the Pahalgam attack on April 22 and the ceasefire on the May 10. And it will take a great deal of diplomacy for the two sides to go back to where they were on the day of the terror attack (i.e., the minimal relations), let alone going back to normalcy and dialogue. But most importantly, Pahalgam and after has fundamentally transformed the terms of engagement between the two sides, and to India’s advantage.

Let’s quickly recall how things stood between India and Pakistan on the day of the attack. Despite unresolved tensions, functional mechanisms were in place: A stable ceasefire, adherence to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), several functional confidence building measures (CBMs), and an open Wagah-Attari border with limited travel. Senior diplomatic officials (minus high commissioners) were present in respective capitals, and there were expectations that some form of discussions on Kashmir would be plausible someday. On April 23, a day after the attack took place, New Delhi announced that it was putting the IWT in abeyance, closing the Attari-Wagah border, and cancelling the posts of defence attaches, among other such measures. The ceasefire between the nuclear-armed neighbours eventually broke down, and Pakistan threatened to suspend the Simla agreement of 1972.

Fast forward to May 11. The hostilities........

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