Never underestimate the SNP. After more than 17 years in power and counting, the party could well emerge as the largest party in Holyrood once again next May, meaning they’ll get first dibs on trying to form yet another government for yet another five years.

The nationalists are miles ahead of nearest rival Scottish Labour in recent polling, by 13 points in constituency voting intention and 10 on the regional list – a gap that has been growing since the autumn. Polls change of course, but the underlying anxiety for Anas Sarwar is that even back in May and June when support for Labour was at its zenith, Scottish Labour never had a definitive lead over the SNP. There’s less love for Labour now and it’s the SNP who seem to be reaping the rewards.

Emerging as the largest party in 2026 would not of course guarantee an SNP-led government but even the possibility is astonishing in a period of such strong anti-incumbency feeling. Dissatisfaction with Scottish public services is pretty widespread; there’s limited enthusiasm for the party and yet they keep winning. Even vote-rigging tyrants don’t get breaks like this. You can imagine the fascination and envy in certain capital cities around the world. “The SNP on course to win again? How do they do it??”

The constitutional divide: that helps. The polls show the structural advantage that the SNP has, as the vastly bigger of two significant pro-independence parties (the Greens being the other), while the pro-union side is now fractured between not just three but four sizeable parties (with Reform).

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