There’s a graph you may have seen that predicts what the next Westminster parliament would look like if the swing at Runcorn was repeated nationwide. Labour: 138. Lib Dem: 17. Tories: 6 (6!) And Reform: 419. Of course, swings at by-elections are never very reliable indications of the future, but it's an unsettling vision nonetheless. And it makes you think: what of Scotland?

There will be some who say, and have said, that the rise of Reform is an English thing and that as England (or rather the working-class north of England) turns right-wing, Scots will say “no more” and support for independence will surge and the union will be over, done, finished, kaput. The obvious flaw in this argument is that neither Brexit nor Boris was enough to lead to a surge in support for independence, so we must assume that most Scots, thank goodness, can see beyond short-term trends to what actually makes political and economic sense.

The other factor in all of this is that support for Reform has risen in Scotland too – it’s not to the same extent as England but in the most recent Survation poll for the Holyrood constituency vote, Reform hit 17%, their highest ever level and quite a bit ahead of the Tories. The details of the figures show the rise comes mostly from pro-Brexit and anti-independence voters, which is unsurprising. Deep down, those two wretched issues still drag at us, like seaweed round the ankles; they are still having an influence.

But looking at how the support for the parties at the English elections broke down, and at the support for the parties in the polls in Scotland, the broader similarities are striking. In the English elections, Reform were on 31%, the Tories on 23, Lib Dems on 17 and Labour on 14. Meanwhile, in that Survation poll for Scotland I mentioned, the SNP were on 34%, Labour on 23, Reform on 17, the Tories on 12, and Lib Dems on 8.

On the........

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