When Scottish Labour politicians and activists gathered at their annual conference a year ago, it was with a newfound optimism, despite doing so under overcast Edinburgh skies. The catastrophe of Liz Truss’s premiership had catapulted Labour to poll leads they hadn’t enjoyed since Tony Blair’s first term in office, elevating Scottish Labour above the Scottish Conservatives to become Scotland’s strongest unionist party.

Nevertheless, despite the shock announcement of Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, they continued to trail the SNP by double-digit margins. A general election would have returned nearly 50 SNP MPs and fewer than ten for Scottish Labour, who continued to face the vexatious question of how to eat into the SNP’s remarkably durable base of independence supporters.

But a year is an eternity in politics. As Anas Sarwar’s party meet in Glasgow this weekend, the silver linings of those Edinburgh clouds have given way to sunny skies – politically, at least.

They convene on the heels of two colossal by-election wins in England, overturning Conservative majorities of 11,220 in Kingswood and 18,540 in Wellingborough, achieving the second-largest Conservative-to-Labour swing in a by-election since 1945.

In the ten English by-elections since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, the Conservative-to-Labour swing has been over 15 points, enough to deliver around an 18 or 19-point Labour victory if replicated in a general election – greater than Margaret Thatcher’s record-setting 14.8-point win in 1983.

Even if we slash that lead by a third to a more realistic 12 or 13 points, we’re talking about a 1997-level Labour victory and at least one of the........

© Herald Scotland