Next week will mark the end of Labour’s first 100 days in power, and the honeymoon is over, if it ever began. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have collapsed, and the proportion of voters who now say they would vote Labour has slipped even lower than the 33.7% they won in July, the lowest vote share for a winning party in the history of the House of Commons. A great deal of gloomy prognostication about the Labour Government’s political viability has followed, but are we at risk of prematurely overstating Labour’s predicament?

Let’s start with the facts: extensive polling by multiple pollsters has detected this collapse. Sir Keir Starmer’s net favourable rating with YouGov has fallen from -3 immediately after the election to -21 today. Ipsos had him at 7 immediately following the election, which has now fallen to -14. Favourability towards the Labour Party has also taken a hit, falling from a net of 6 immediately after the election to -9 today.

Approval ratings reflect similar declines. Opinium has recorded a massive collapse in Sir Keir’s net approval from 19 after the election to -30 today. Ipsos have found a less startling but still significant decline from 7 to -21.

And we have seen a similarly negative shift in Scotland, specifically. Sir Keir’s net favourability rating with Ipsos Scotland has fallen from -10 in March to -23 today. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, whose net favourability rating sits at -27, are significantly less popular than their SNP counterparts: the First Minister, John Swinney, and the Economy Secretary, Kate Forbes, sit on -11.

Net favourability........

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