Scotland is heading for one of our most fractured and potentially fractious, Parliaments in the devolution era come May 2026. The SNP's defeat at the hands of Scottish Labour at the 2024 General Election in July signalled the end of a period of hegemonic dominance for the party. Still, while losing 39 seats, they trailed Labour by just 5.3 points – 30% to 35.3%.

Scottish Parliament elections operate using an additional member system which approximates proportional representation within each of the eight regions, making it impossible for a party to win 64.9% of the seats on 35.3% of the vote, as Scottish Labour did in July. Indeed, the Scottish Parliament polling we have had since July, with the elections now 18 months away, suggests a deeply fractured Parliament than that, as support for Scottish Labour has slipped in the first three months of the new UK Government.

In Ballot Box Scotland's average of Scottish Parliament polling, Scottish Labour's constituency vote share has declined five points, from 34.6% in July to 29.6% this month. Its regional list vote share has declined 3.2 points from 30.2% to 27%.

The SNP's vote share in the same poll average has also declined by just 2.2 points from 35% to 32.8% in the constituency vote and just one point from 29.4% to 28.4%. According to Ballot Box Scotland, the polls suggest that the SNP would be the largest party in a Scottish Parliament election with 45 seats, despite falling significantly from the 64 seats they won in 2021. Scottish Labour would win 39 seats, the Conservatives 17, the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens 10 seats each, and Reform UK would break through with eight seats.........

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