There was little, if anything, to cheer the spirits in the latest Scottish economic commentary from the Fraser of Allander Institute.

The University of Strathclyde research institute’s commentary was peppered with appropriate but unappealing adjectives when it came to the current economic situation and outlook.

And, as with the economic and fiscal outlook published last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility to coincide with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement, there was a mention of the spectre of tariffs from US President Donald Trump.

The Trump trade situation became clear on Wednesday night, with a general 10% tariff on goods imported to the US from the UK, a situation which could have been worse but could also have been better.

While they will be a bitter blow to some exporters and key sectors, and we should not underestimate this impact, the Trump tariffs on the UK pale into insignificance in terms of the overall economic effect relative to the damage from Brexit.

Fraser of Allander got straight to the point about the overall situation at the start of its commentary by observing that “the first quarter of 2025 paints a complex and uncertain picture for the Scottish economy”.

While flagging signs of “modest growth”, it declared that “the broader outlook is overshadowed by mounting domestic and global headwinds”.

In the commentary, published on Wednesday hours ahead of Mr Trump’s tariffs announcement, Fraser of Allander added: “The beginning of 2025 has seen growing unease as firms prepare for rising........

© Herald Scotland