Last summer I wrote about the renewed optimism surrounding the global economy. Inflation in most leading economies appeared to be heading back toward target levels, interest rates were stabilising at more neutral levels, and the growth outlook was the most promising it had been in several years.

From a historical perspective, this return to "trend" – or what economists call a "steady state" – might not seem extraordinary. Growth remains subdued compared to long-run averages, and living standards continue to feel the impact of the recent inflationary spike.

However, compared to the turbulence of recent years, even a semblance of normality would be welcome. Over the last 15 years the global economy has been hit by a series of "once-in-a-generation" shocks, from the 2008 financial crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent energy price surge.

Read more:

Does style overshadow substance in Scots economic debate?

By mid-2024, the Scottish economy was only around 2.5% larger than pre-pandemic. In other words, nearly five years of growth barely equalled what we might typically expect from one good year.

A return to stability wouldn’t just be a relief in........

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