Reform UK has seen a surge in support over the past eight months since the General Election, both in Scotland and in Britain overall.

Visiting Glasgow this week, the party’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice said that Reform UK is “going up in the polls” and that First Minister John Swinney and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar “are terrified” by the party’s growth. Meanwhile, Mr Swinney spoke at Bute House last week of the need to “unite against the far right” and criticised Reform UK leader Nigel Farage as being “an apologist to the Russian agenda”.

With 14 months still to go until the next Scottish Parliament elections, voting intention polls have been few and far between in Scotland recently. What polling evidence there is indicates that there is now little in it between Reform UK and the Conservatives as to which party takes third place behind the SNP and Labour.

Average vote share across the three Holyrood voting intention polls taken in 2025 to date puts the Conservatives on 14% and Reform UK on 13%. The SNP maintains pole position with an average voting intention share of 35%, although that represents a decline compared with the 44% of the vote the party received at the 2021 Holyrood elections. In contrast, Scottish Labour has slumped in the polls in recent months as the UK party has become more unpopular in office, with recent polling putting it in a distant second place to the SNP on around 20%.

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