John Swinney, the First Minister, is not a man generally disposed towards wild speculation. Ask him what his plans are for government after the 2026 election – and specifically with which party he plans to formally or informally coalesce – and he’ll say something along the lines of “let’s just wait and see how the cards fall”.

We would be mistaken to think that Mr Swinney is not particularly exercised either by the question or the answer. Inevitably, with little over 12 months to go until the election, Mr Swinney and his advisers will be considering their options very carefully. More pertinently, they will be watching the actions, the words and the tone of the politicians and the parties who are likely to be contenders for the First Minister’s call list on May 8, 2026.

This may all be presumptuous and unfairly dismissive of Labour’s prospects, but for the moment, let us believe the polls. Every survey this year has had the SNP returning a number of seats in the mid-50s, with Labour coming second in the mid-20s. A significant victory, for sure, but actually well short of the 64 seats the party won at the last election.

Read more by Andy Maciver

Sitting on 64 seats, very little help is required to pass Budgets and to ensure the smooth progress of its legislation. Take 10 seats off that tally, and you have a much bigger problem to tackle. Take 10 seats off that tally, and you need a much more reliable, solid and certain friend.

I have mooted in the past, on these........

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