This newspaper, quoting official statistics reported a sharp and steep drop in the total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children a woman bears in childbearing years — in J&K (January 1st, 2025. Greater Kashmir). While the fertility rate has been on the decline for more than four decades now, the last 15 years have seen an exceptionally sharp drop. From 3.6 in 1990-91, it declined to 2.4 in 2005-06 to and 1.7 in 2015-16. Now, the latest estimates show that it stands at 1.4 in 2019-21.

This long-term decline is consistent with broader demographic trends observed in many parts nationally and globally. India’s fertility rate has seen a substantial decline, dropping from an average of 6 children per woman till 1970s to 2.7 in 2008, and further to 2.4 in 2021. Globally, the average fertility rate has halved from around 5 in the 1960s to approximately 2.4 in 2021.

In J&K, the issue is not so much about the trend, which is natural, and, in most cases, desirable reflecting improved socio-economic indicators. It is about the level of the fertility rate. At 1.4, it is not only low in absolute terms, but it is also lower than the replacement rate of 1.8. The replacement fertility rate corresponds to the average number of children per woman necessary for each generation to sustain population levels.

From this it has been hurriedly inferred, rather alarmingly, that it is a crisis and that the Kashmiri race is heading towards extinction. Social media posts added conspiracy theories to it making demographic transition to be demographic transformation.

As of 2021, over half of all countries and territories (110 out of 204) have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. In 2016, almost half of all the districts in India had below-replacement fertility levels, with only 15 per cent having fertility rates of above 3.0.........

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