For most of the past three decades, Iran assumed that its geographic position would eventually draw Central Asia southward. The argument was simple. If the region wanted reliable access to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf, the most logical path ran through Iranian territory. This idea circulated so often in Tehran that it became part of the country’s strategic vocabulary.

The turning point came with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before 2022, a large share of Central Asia’s westbound freight moved across Russian territory. The route was familiar and had survived many political storms. When the sanctions regime tightened, and banks began second-guessing every transaction, that familiar line suddenly became unpredictable. Cargo that once moved with a single set of documents now requires several. Insurance premiums spiked, border posts slowed, and payments stalled for reasons no one could quite explain. A corridor can exist on paper long after companies decide they cannot risk using it, and that is precisely what happened.

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The urgency to diversify prompted governments in the region to reconsider the Caspian Sea. The route, often described as part of the Middle Corridor, sends freight from Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan to ports on the Caspian coast, then across the water to Azerbaijan, and onward through Georgia and Turkey into Europe. Its technical challenges are well known. The Caspian can be difficult in winter. Ferry schedules require careful coordination. Some sections of the Caucasian rail still need modernization. But the corridor offered something that mattered more than perfect conditions—distance from Russia and the compliance anxieties that accompany operations on its territory. As exporters began trying the route, momentum built almost on its own. Volumes increased, and so did confidence, reflected in the expansion of the Caspian segment and the increase in freight moving across the Middle Corridor.

What has changed recently is the scale of investment flowing into this network. Kazakhstan has added capacity at Aktau and Kuryk. Azerbaijan, never shy about........

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