US President Trump declared last year on the conclusion of the twelve-day war between the US-Israel and Iran that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated”. His statement was repeated even more forcefully by his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, that the US had succeeded in not only destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities but also in wiping out its nuclear ambitions. Eight months later, on February 28, 2026, the US and Israel relaunched coordinated military strikes on Iran. This time round the scope of the war had widened, and Trump declared that they were once again targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and its military infrastructure and also forcing a regime change.

The 12-day war last June is reported to have caused significant damage to Iran’s uranium enrichment and conversion facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports confirmed that its main nuclear facilities located in Fordow and the heavily fortified underground site at Natanz were severely hit by the use of US bunker-buster bombs. The Arms Control Association also confirmed the destruction of the heavy-water reactor at Arak.

Three days into Operation Epic Fury, on March 2, 2026, to be precise, the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi declared that although Iran did have a nuclear programme, it had “no structured programme to develop nuclear weapons”. The current campaign has further damaged the Natanz nuclear facility and has rendered Fordow inoperable. The defence-industrial facilities required to reconstitute enrichment capacity have also been targeted.

By contrast, Israel’s nuclear weapons are regarded as one of the world’s worst-kept secrets. The Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation has........

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